Ukraine holds some of Europe’s largest lithium and rare-earth deposits, making it a strategic partner for the US and EU in reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. However, Washington’s aggressive demands—reportedly including 50% of mineral revenues and partial control over Ukraine’s gas pipelines—have provoked alarm within Kyiv’s government, raising concerns about sovereignty and economic independence. These tensions come as Ukraine remains deeply dependent on Western support in its war against Russia, leaving it little room to negotiate freely.

The mineral deal is part of broader US efforts to secure access to critical resources while offsetting the costs of military and financial aid to Ukraine. As Ukraine tries to rebuild its war-torn economy and maintain leverage in foreign partnerships, the perception of a 'protection racket'—as described by critics—has worsened the tone of negotiations. Recent leaks and reports confirm that trust between both sides is eroding rapidly.

Unless terms are revised to address Ukrainian sovereignty concerns, the deal may collapse entirely or be indefinitely postponed. A failure to finalize the agreement could impact future aid flows and deepen strategic rifts within the transatlantic alliance. Meanwhile, Russia may exploit this disunity to undermine Western solidarity with Kyiv.