Iran's hesitation to re-enter nuclear talks with the U.S. stems from a deep-seated mistrust, particularly after the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA and the subsequent reimposition of sanctions. This skepticism is compounded by internal political dynamics favoring hardline stances and a strategic assessment that its nuclear advancements provide significant bargaining power. Regionally, while proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah face setbacks, Iran's influence persists through other channels, including cyber capabilities and strategic alliances with nations like Russia and China.

The U.S.'s exit from the JCPOA in 2018 and the 'maximum pressure' campaign severely impacted Iran's economy and international standing. These actions have led Iranian leadership to question the reliability of U.S. commitments. Concurrently, U.S. demands for broader concessions, including limitations on Iran's missile program and regional activities, are perceived by Tehran as overreaching and indicative of an agenda aimed at curbing Iran's sovereignty and regional influence.

Given the current trajectory, Iran is likely to continue enhancing its nuclear capabilities as a means of strengthening its negotiating position. The international community may witness increased diplomatic efforts to bring both parties back to the table, but without mutual trust and concessions, the potential for a new agreement remains uncertain. Additionally, regional tensions could escalate if Iran opts to assert its influence through remaining proxies or other asymmetric means.